Predictions and Expectations…

Following up to yesterday’s FL-Gov turnout projections, I’ll start with the Governor’s race — Alex Sink will eek out a narrow victory more on the strength of people voting against Rick Scott than for Alex, despite the fact that she will likely make an excellent Governor, she has not been a terrific candidate and her campaign has been sub-par at best.

The US Senate race will go to Marco Rubio, a very tragic outcome for Floridians, though there was no option for a non-tragic outcome.  We must work harder to get better candidates.  The media must do more to demand higher quality candidates, the Democratic Party must be more aggressive in utilizing primaries to both screen and improve candidates and campaigns.

I would love to have Gelber, Ausley and Maddox win the cabinet offices, but I expect none of them to prevail, though Gelber has the best shot at an upset, particularly if South Florida turnout outperforms expectations.

Joe Garcia will take US House district 25, a great victory that should be celebrated.  Alan Boyd and Susan Kosmas will be ejected from the House, and I won’t cry a bit about that.  The rest of the Florida US House seats will stay in the control of the incumbent party.  I hope Heather Beaven will take another shot in 2012 and the state and national party will be more receptive and supportive of her effort.

The brightest spot for Florida Democrats will be the defeat of John Thrasher by Deborah Gianoulis in North East Florida.  Thrasher is the Chair of the Republican Party and has abused his power on both ends to feed his corruption.  He is the champion behind SB6, a bill that would take Florida’s schools from worst in the nation to….worst in the industrialized world.  The defeat of the RPOF Chairman should be the #1 talking point out of the state, but given the propensity to favor Faux New’s talking points, we will probably be talking about Boyd and Kosmas being defeated as a sign that Democrats are doomed in Florida.  One article appeared with a headline indicating that the 2012 Presidential election hinged on the outcome of the 2010 Florida Governors race…how exactly?  In 2006, Republican Charlie Crist won the Governors office and in 2008 Barack Obama won Florida and the Presidential Election by pretty strong margins.  Does that mean Democrats should be rooting for Rick Sc—-… I can’t even finish that.  It is all pure idiocy, go vote, vote the people you believe should win, not the person you think will win.

With the lack of candidates for State House and Senate, Democrats will shed a couple seats in both, losing both quality and quantity in both houses, a sad setback we MUST work hard to recover from in 2012.

Nationally, I expect Republicans to win quite a few US House seats we should have never won in the first place and a few others within the margins, bringing the House to a pretty even balance, 3-5 seats either direction.  I’m optimistic but not confident.  Democrats will hold the US Senate with 53-55 seats.

Democrats will gain Governorships in several states, lose them in several more, and one Charlie Crist-like valueless chameleon “Independent” will take Rhode Island — The balance will be a Republican gain of 3-5 Governorships.

The national media and right wing pundits (aren’t they the same?) will decry this as a Republican triumph and a “Democratic Collapse” – rhetoric that was rarely pushed forward in reverse in 2006 or 2008.  In reality it was just the result of a first term President’s midterm in the aftermath of a devastatingly bad eight year reign of terror by W – he and his cronies destroyed the economy and even though President Obama and the Democrats have made great strides to recover and a had a historically productive two years, the messaging was not effective, it is the great success no one knows happened.  The media should be embarrassed, the DNC and White House should be embarrassed.  I am embarrassed.   We must do better.

If you don’t vote, you don’t get to bitch” –  My mom.

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