On Sunday, I posted my turnout projections for the Florida Governor’s race, let’s see how I did… First, the ugly – counties where I was off by 10% or more either direction: Nine of 67 counties had projections off by 10%, all experience greater than 10% more turnout than expected. No counties showed >10% less […]Read More →
UPDATE @ 3:20AM — With additional numbers in from Hillsborough showing VERY POOR (sub 50%) performance by the Sink/Smith campaign, this one looks over pending recount. Very disturbing results and tragic for the people of Florida if this isn’t overcome by massive turnout in the remaining outstanding precincts/absentees/provisionals tilted heavily in Sink’s favor or a […]Read More →
Following up to yesterday’s FL-Gov turnout projections, I’ll start with the Governor’s race — Alex Sink will eek out a narrow victory more on the strength of people voting against Rick Scott than for Alex, despite the fact that she will likely make an excellent Governor, she has not been a terrific candidate and her […]Read More →
The following data and commentary should assist some in following and understanding the returns tomorrow night, focused on the Governors race. I will include historical data and some formulas that create history based projections. There is also a bit of “art” in the shaping of performance based on the perceived focuses (geographically and demographically) of the campaign/party activity, and […]Read More →
Conventional Un-Wisdom: To win this district, you need yard signs. You want to make me cry on election night? Let me find out that a good candidate lost by a slim margin, but had a ton of yard signs. The answer is always no. NO YARD SIGNS. They don’t vote, they never will. Had the […]Read More →
…not that anyone will listen. The media, the rumor mills, the pundits have been pushing the notion that Kendrick Meek should drop out of the Florida US Senate race and support Charlie Crist – this is a giant pile of Un-Wisdom. For roughly twelve years, Charlie Crist has been terrible to teachers, students, parents, schools […]Read More →
Conventional Un-Wisdom: As a candidate, you need to meet as many people as possible, you should have as many events scheduled each day as is possible. This one is found on campaigns of all budgets, from the most experienced to the greenest candidates. For some candidates, this is a matter of style/choice or as a […]Read More →
Conventional Un-Wisdom: To win in this district, you need to hire locals to work on your campaign. This is a Conventional Un-Wisdom that happens early in the campaign assembly process and creates a rapid spiral in to more un-wise actions than a campaign can typically recover from. Typically it comes from a “party elder” or […]Read More →
This is the second of a series of post that will take on some of the myths and mistakes that circulate campaigns and the pundit-sphere unchallenged. We will be provide links on the sidebar to the right to resources for people seeking employment in progressive campaigns, from direct job listings to career and training resources. […]Read More →
This is the first of a series of post that will take on some of the myths and mistakes that circulate campaigns and the pundit-sphere unchallenged. We will be provide links on the sidebar to the right to resources for people seeking employment in progressive campaigns, from direct job listings to career and training resources. If your candidate or campaign is in need of training or other assistance, please contact us.
Conventional Un-Wisdom – As a candidate, I am engaging in what is essentially a continuous job interview, as such I should wear a suit and tie everywhere I go (or similar business attire for female candidates).
This one is very common, and very funny to observe at times. Very few districts at any level have a community in which a business suit is “standard attire.” This becomes even more obvious when you look at the electorate, particularly the universes most likely to be targeted by a progressive campaign. If you don’t recognize it is funny to see a guy (or gal) in a business suit speaking to a crowd at pig roast or a county fair, you may need to get your observation skills re-tuned.
When you are perceived as overdressed by the audience, it adds to the barriers already stacked up against a candidate for breaking through with their message. The audience sees the candidate as less approachable, less like themselves, they become far less likely to become emotionally tied to the campaign. This reduces donor and volunteer potential, and it closes doors the campaign may not even be able to find on their own.Read More →