As promised, here is the complete breakdown of performance versus the democratic performance goals I had projected for the Florida Governors Race. I will use the same sorting I used yesterday for the turnout breakdown, but I have adjusted the reference of the turnout – each county is reported by what percentage of expected turnout […]
Read More →Category: Projections
FL-Gov: Turnout Predictions versus Actual Turnout
On Sunday, I posted my turnout projections for the Florida Governor’s race, let’s see how I did… First, the ugly – counties where I was off by 10% or more either direction: Nine of 67 counties had projections off by 10%, all experience greater than 10% more turnout than expected. No counties showed >10% less […]
Read More →FL-Gov Results: What I see that says Sink will win…
UPDATE @ 3:20AM — With additional numbers in from Hillsborough showing VERY POOR (sub 50%) performance by the Sink/Smith campaign, this one looks over pending recount. Very disturbing results and tragic for the people of Florida if this isn’t overcome by massive turnout in the remaining outstanding precincts/absentees/provisionals tilted heavily in Sink’s favor or a […]
Read More →Predictions and Expectations…
Following up to yesterday’s FL-Gov turnout projections, I’ll start with the Governor’s race — Alex Sink will eek out a narrow victory more on the strength of people voting against Rick Scott than for Alex, despite the fact that she will likely make an excellent Governor, she has not been a terrific candidate and her […]
Read More →2010 Vote Projections – Florida Governor’s Race
The following data and commentary should assist some in following and understanding the returns tomorrow night, focused on the Governors race. I will include historical data and some formulas that create history based projections. There is also a bit of “art” in the shaping of performance based on the perceived focuses (geographically and demographically) of the campaign/party activity, and […]
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